Time Capsule for 2037

It's interesting reading a time capsule, written in 1987, about life in 2012. Some of the predictions are prescient. But when the author goes off in a particularly bright or dark direction, the prediction falls short.

The link is here: http://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions

After reading these predictions, I felt compelled to make some for the next 25 years. Below are my predictions of life in 2037.

Medicine
Over the past 25 years, substantial changes have been made in the medical field thanks to genetics, bio-mechanics, and Information Technology.

The cost of gene sequencing has bottomed out.  The cost to fully sequence the genetic code of any organism is about the same as the cost today of typical blood work of about $500 (or about $300 in 2012 dollars). Practically everyone in a developed nation has had their full genome sequenced. Genetic based medicine with information technology is used extensively for medicine choice for both effectiveness and minimization of side effects. Gene sequencing also has been extended to be used as a diagnostic tool to determine proper treatments for cancers, and severe bacterial and viral infections.

The cost of gene synthesis has also decreased and has become widespread. Gene splicing is obsolete. Most agricultural crops and livestock can find a decedent in an organism which was created through gene synthesis. There is still a market for organic crops and livestock however.

Humans have also been created through gene synthesis and IVF. Creation of a human life in this method is illegal in some countries and subsidized by the state in others. It is not rare to hear of an infertile or homosexual couple to use this mechanism to have a child of both partners. Many healthy heterosexual couples have children born through these same techniques. Practically all children born this way have genes changed to improve their physical and mental capabilities.

Prosthesis body parts have improved to the point where some are better than the original parts they replace. Civilians who have body parts voluntarily replaced are uncommon but not rare. However, it is common for people who are career military or law enforcement. The first brain prosthesis have been made. Entire brains have been emulated in a computer. There is disagreement on what qualifies an entity as human.

Most doctors have virtual agents that supervise their work, provide suggestions from the latest medical research, and supply pertinent information.

Electronics/Technology
The miniaturization of silicon semiconductors has run it's course. Silicon is still used due to cost considerations. Other, more exotic materials, are used to create the latest integrated circuits. Most devices are heavily integrated, combining CPU, memory, I/O, and all but the latest types of wireless communications. Practically every device has access to the Internet using a physical connection or wireless LAN. Cellular data is still used in 2037, but is only used by either personal electronics which is the 2037 version of the smartphone, or some sort of implant.  In these cases a cellular connection is supplemented in practically every urban setting by wireless LAN. Wireless LANs are still based on some revision of the IEEE 802.11 standard.

Energy
There exists two massive HVDC power grids, one connecting all of the Americas, and a second connecting Africa, Europe, and Asia. Some links within cities use superconducting links. Distribution to home and business still is whatever AC standard is present in 2012.

Use of renewable energy makes up a significant portion of the worlds power networks. Base-load power is still provided by fossil fuel and nuclear power.

Transportation
Intra-city transportation is overwhelmingly provided by electrically powered self-driving vehicles. Ground vehicles powered by fossil fuels are used less than in 2012, but are still common for rural areas, long distance transportation, or for pleasure.

Most inter-city transportation is achieved either through fossil fuel powered ground vehicles, jets, or high speed rail.

Economy
There has been three expansion/recession cycles, with society just about to enter into, in, or just leaving the fourth recession in 2037. Money is worth about 40% of what it is was in 2012.

In developed nations, income is more stratified. Those who are in positions which cannot be outsourced, due to a combination of geography, ability, or ownership of capital have substantial income. Those who do not belong to these groups are relatively poorer than in 2012.

China is a rich country. In order to maintain social harmony Chinese companies and the Chinese state keeps large numbers of people employed unproductively. China is in a long recession that it is having a hard time recovering from.

Currently the cheap labor market is moving to central Asian countries and Africa. Chinese and Indians are complaining that Africans are taking their jobs. Most cheap labor works in cities owned by their multinational employers.

Environment
Climate change has proven undeniable. Wealthy countries have been able to mitigate the worst of the issues with public works projects to divert water, and genetically engineered crops to provide food. Less wealthy countries have seen massive social unrest, wars, and famines. There are alcoves in may poor countries managed by international companies. In these alcoves, food and order are provided in return for cheap labor and natural resources.

The world population is stabilizing at around 11 billion souls.

Lessons from Saving Sanctuary

Wow, talk about addicting!  I've just spent a few (many) evenings playing Blizzard Entertainment's latest fix, Diablo 3. So far, I've managed to get my Wizard character up to Inferno difficulty, and I'm working on a character in the Barbarian Class.

A little bit about the game: In Diablo 3, you play a hero type, drawn to the troubled town of New Tristram by a falling star. Arriving in town, you soon discover evil afoot.  And off you go, spouting exclamations while slashing, shooting, or blowing up the Legions of Hell.

By Legions of Hell, I mean pinatas, that explode with gold, weapons, and new duds.

During my time, whacking away with my stick to get at all the virtual shinies, I came across some observations which might be of use to those who follow in my well worn path.

Clothes Make the Man

One of the things you'll find out after about the first hour is that how powerful a character is, isn't so much based on his level, but rather the quality of his equipment.

Success in Diablo 3 can easily be summed up with, kill things, don't die.

To find happiness and success in killing things, which you will be doing a lot of, basically boils down to the DPS of your weapon multiplied by your primary stat.  This means that the most important thing to get is the highest DPS weapon you can get your hands on and lots of your primary stat on various pieces of equipment.  The primary stat is Strength for Barbarians, Dexterity for Monks and Demon Hunters, and Intelligence for Wizards and Witchdoctors.

Personally, at the very least, I would look at getting a new weapon every two acts.

Working on the second part, don't die, the best way is to have lots and lots of vitality. Later on, other things are necessary, but for the most part, more vitality means more health, which means less dying on your part.

As you start getting into Hell and Inferno difficulty, other stats start getting important.  Keep an eye out for things like resist all, movement speed, attack speed, critical hit, and life%.

Sold!  To the Man in the Fancy Hat

During your travels in beating up demonic pinatas, you'll find lots of things that would be great for another class, or would have been great about 10 levels ago. This is everyone's experience. The best way of getting something that is nice is the Auction House.  You can sell those items that would be great for that other class, or for someone a few levels lower than you for gold. More importantly, you can buy gear that is appropriate for both your class and level. Even better is that in a few levels, you can sell that old but awesome pair of pants as a hand-me-down, and pick up the latest model.

One big tip for the auction house is to search by Minimum Buyout.  Set that to a value of around 10k to 50k for a weapon, or 5k to 25k for a piece of equipment.  For all of the non-inferno difficulty levels, you'll always find something really good for you at these price ranges.

Don't Gorge that Forge

Haedrig and Shen might sound like fun people, and you are undoubtedly tempted to pour your hard earned gold into making them the best blacksmith and jeweler they can be. But don't fall for their tricks! They are not only expensive to train, but don't give you anything good! Wait until you are level 60, and in inferno difficulty before spending your hard earned gold in upgrading them. Until then, you will get much better stuff in the Auction House.

More the Merrier

After you get acquainted with Diablo on the easiest difficulty level, I highly recommend that you don't go at the higher difficulty levels alone.

The way that Multiplayer works is that for each player, up to four, the various beasties get a bonus to health and damage based on the number of people playing. But the bonuses aren't exactly a full multiplier of the number of people playing. For instance, if four people are playing, they monsters might do 2x the damage, and have 3.5x the HP.

What this means is that a full party of people, all playing together, will be able to whack more things much faster than if people were each going at it alone. Not only that, but different characters can cover each others weaknesses. The wizard can blow up that annoying fly that always keeps just outside of reach, while the monk can deal with the legion of swarming little goblins.

In short

Get a good weapon...
Everything else get Str/Dex/Int and Vitality...
Abuse the Auction House...
Don't bother upgrading the Blacksmith or Jeweler...
Play with your friends...

Thoughts on Skype Purchase

I'm sure most people have heard about the recent move by Microsoft to purchase Skype for the eye-popping price tag of $8.5 billion.  Oddly, the pundents and press releases mostly speak of integration with things like the Xbox gaming platform or Microsoft's various communication/IM tools.

Personally, I find these two examples not the most compelling or useful examples they could have given.

Why?

In the consumer space Microsoft Kinect already has a video over the internet feature.  And if you have ever played a game online over Xbox live, you probably know that it supports audio over the internet as well.

In the enterprise space there is also an Enterprise collaboration tool called Lync.   I haven't had a chance to play around with Lync yet, but if it's anything like Live Meeting, which it is replacing, it can do a competent job of doing sharing audio, video, to multiple people.

I'm curious to why people keep writing about letting people use their Xbox's to video conference on an Enterprise network?  I mean, it could be interesting, but $8.5 billion dollars interesting?  And why do they need Skype?

The one thing that Skype has that Microsoft doesn't, that I can think of, is the ability to tie in VoIP to a phone network for millions of users.

Backing up a little bit.  How happy are you with your cell phone coverage while indoors?  Unless you have a femtocell or your cellular company has a tower right outside your house or office, chances are, not very.  Personally I use Sprint as my cell phone provider.  Most of the time, my reception indoors is terrible.  If I go further into the building to a confrence room, fuggadaboutit.  No service.  This is pretty much standard course for any cellular company.

Even though I don't have good phone service, I do have good WiFi. 

Let's say for a moment that my phone service uses WiFi when it's available, and cellular network when I'm away from my home or office.  Suddenly my poor Sprint service I get while at a meeting or in paticular rooms at home doesn't matter as much.  I can still make or receive calls on my cell phone, no matter which confrence room or basement I'm in.

Beyond SIP service, Skype does allow their users to get their own phone number, and can make and recieve phone calls over an IP connection to the phone network.  In fact, that's how they make most of their money.  Now, cellular network providers probably don't like this idea a lot, because they want people to buy voice network minutes.  But cellular providers the world over might not have a lot of say into this.

Why?  Because of Google Android.

Google has been supplying Google Voice and Google Talk for the past serveral months. How long do you think it will take before you'll see seamless handovers between your data cell networks and your home or work WiFi networks with your Android phone running SIP or some other VoIP using Google software?  My bet, less than a year.

I'm sure it will be a long path with much gnashing of teeth from the Verizons, AT&Ts, and Sprints of the world, but through the wonders of competition, I can see the day where you simply buy a data plan from your cellular network provider and don't give a fig about voice minutes.  And if you want to make a phone call without walking to your window, you'll need an Android phone.

I think that Microsoft has come to the same conclusion.  Windows Mobile platform needs a killer app, or at least, can't be a killer app behind Android.  And anything you can do with Google Voice/Talk, you can do with Skype.  To keep up with Android, Windows Mobile will need to offer this feature, and probably heavily integrate Skype into Windows Mobile for their VoIP technology.

 I wonder what Apple will do to compete, given their lack of VoIP and interaction with phone networks in their portfolio?