Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Time Capsule for 2037

It's interesting reading a time capsule, written in 1987, about life in 2012. Some of the predictions are prescient. But when the author goes off in a particularly bright or dark direction, the prediction falls short.

The link is here: http://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions

After reading these predictions, I felt compelled to make some for the next 25 years. Below are my predictions of life in 2037.

Medicine
Over the past 25 years, substantial changes have been made in the medical field thanks to genetics, bio-mechanics, and Information Technology.

The cost of gene sequencing has bottomed out.  The cost to fully sequence the genetic code of any organism is about the same as the cost today of typical blood work of about $500 (or about $300 in 2012 dollars). Practically everyone in a developed nation has had their full genome sequenced. Genetic based medicine with information technology is used extensively for medicine choice for both effectiveness and minimization of side effects. Gene sequencing also has been extended to be used as a diagnostic tool to determine proper treatments for cancers, and severe bacterial and viral infections.

The cost of gene synthesis has also decreased and has become widespread. Gene splicing is obsolete. Most agricultural crops and livestock can find a decedent in an organism which was created through gene synthesis. There is still a market for organic crops and livestock however.

Humans have also been created through gene synthesis and IVF. Creation of a human life in this method is illegal in some countries and subsidized by the state in others. It is not rare to hear of an infertile or homosexual couple to use this mechanism to have a child of both partners. Many healthy heterosexual couples have children born through these same techniques. Practically all children born this way have genes changed to improve their physical and mental capabilities.

Prosthesis body parts have improved to the point where some are better than the original parts they replace. Civilians who have body parts voluntarily replaced are uncommon but not rare. However, it is common for people who are career military or law enforcement. The first brain prosthesis have been made. Entire brains have been emulated in a computer. There is disagreement on what qualifies an entity as human.

Most doctors have virtual agents that supervise their work, provide suggestions from the latest medical research, and supply pertinent information.

Electronics/Technology
The miniaturization of silicon semiconductors has run it's course. Silicon is still used due to cost considerations. Other, more exotic materials, are used to create the latest integrated circuits. Most devices are heavily integrated, combining CPU, memory, I/O, and all but the latest types of wireless communications. Practically every device has access to the Internet using a physical connection or wireless LAN. Cellular data is still used in 2037, but is only used by either personal electronics which is the 2037 version of the smartphone, or some sort of implant.  In these cases a cellular connection is supplemented in practically every urban setting by wireless LAN. Wireless LANs are still based on some revision of the IEEE 802.11 standard.

Energy
There exists two massive HVDC power grids, one connecting all of the Americas, and a second connecting Africa, Europe, and Asia. Some links within cities use superconducting links. Distribution to home and business still is whatever AC standard is present in 2012.

Use of renewable energy makes up a significant portion of the worlds power networks. Base-load power is still provided by fossil fuel and nuclear power.

Transportation
Intra-city transportation is overwhelmingly provided by electrically powered self-driving vehicles. Ground vehicles powered by fossil fuels are used less than in 2012, but are still common for rural areas, long distance transportation, or for pleasure.

Most inter-city transportation is achieved either through fossil fuel powered ground vehicles, jets, or high speed rail.

Economy
There has been three expansion/recession cycles, with society just about to enter into, in, or just leaving the fourth recession in 2037. Money is worth about 40% of what it is was in 2012.

In developed nations, income is more stratified. Those who are in positions which cannot be outsourced, due to a combination of geography, ability, or ownership of capital have substantial income. Those who do not belong to these groups are relatively poorer than in 2012.

China is a rich country. In order to maintain social harmony Chinese companies and the Chinese state keeps large numbers of people employed unproductively. China is in a long recession that it is having a hard time recovering from.

Currently the cheap labor market is moving to central Asian countries and Africa. Chinese and Indians are complaining that Africans are taking their jobs. Most cheap labor works in cities owned by their multinational employers.

Environment
Climate change has proven undeniable. Wealthy countries have been able to mitigate the worst of the issues with public works projects to divert water, and genetically engineered crops to provide food. Less wealthy countries have seen massive social unrest, wars, and famines. There are alcoves in may poor countries managed by international companies. In these alcoves, food and order are provided in return for cheap labor and natural resources.

The world population is stabilizing at around 11 billion souls.